The year 2021 was marked by a significant increase in mortgage interest rates in France. This surge has raised concerns among potential borrowers who fear a reduction in their purchasing power. However, according to credit brokers, this trend is expected to stabilize in the coming months.
Anticipated Peak in January or February Next Year
Experts predict that the peak of the rise in mortgage interest rates will be reached in January or February next year. At that time, it is estimated that rates will reach close to 5% over a 20-year period and 5.2% over 25 years. These figures represent a considerable increase compared to current rates, which hover around 4.2% over 20 years, according to Cafpi.
Gradual Decline Expected from 2024
The Union of Credit Intermediaries foresees a gradual decline in rates starting from 2024, with a stabilization expected around 4% by the end of the following year. This forecast offers a glimmer of hope for prospective buyers who may benefit from more favorable conditions in the years ahead.
Reduced Timeframes for Commercial Proposals
A positive development for borrowers is the reduction in timeframes for commercial proposals from banks. Indeed, the average time has decreased from 22 days in January to just 14 days in October, reaching its shortest level since November 2021. This acceleration in the process enables borrowers to make decisions more swiftly and realize their real estate projects more easily.
Commercial Gestures by Banks
Faced with these rising rates, some banks have opted for commercial gestures to mitigate the impact on borrowers. They have notably reduced processing fees or proposed enhanced loans based on individual profiles and purchase projects. These initiatives are well-received by prospective buyers, who see them as an opportunity to carry out their real estate projects under better financial conditions.
Signs of Slowdown, Yet Still a Delicate Situation
Despite these signs of slowdown, it is important to emphasize that the real estate market remains somewhat constrained. Bérengère Dubus from the Union of Credit Intermediaries believes that much still needs to be done to truly unlock the situation. According to her, relaxation measures from the High Council for Financial Stability might be necessary to facilitate access to mortgage credit.
Perspective on Easing Measures
During its scheduled meeting in December, the High Council for Financial Stability might announce relaxation measures aimed at facilitating access to mortgage credit. This perspective suggests a possible stabilization or even a decrease in interest rates in the coming months. However, it is still too early to speak definitively about the end of the rate hike, and caution is advised regarding the future evolution of the real estate market.
In conclusion, the rise in mortgage interest rates is expected to stabilize within three to four months, according to credit brokers. While the peak of this increase is anticipated in January or February next year, a gradual decline in rates is expected from 2024. Timeframes for commercial proposals have shortened, and some banks have implemented commercial gestures to mitigate the impact on borrowers. However, there is still much to be done to genuinely unlock the real estate market. Announced relaxation measures by the High Council for Financial Stability could enhance access to mortgage credit, but it is too early to speak of the end of the rate hike. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor the future evolution of the real estate market and be attentive to any measures taken to facilitate access to credit.